Published 5 August 2026, two days after Indeed Hiring Lab published its 2026 mid-year UK jobs and hiring trends report.
If you've spent the summer sending out applications and getting fewer replies than you did last year, you're not imagining it. The market you're applying into right now is measurably thinner than the one your older sibling or your mate a year ahead of you graduated into.
What the report actually found
Indeed's economics team published their mid-year check on the UK labour market on 3 August 2026, and the headline number is stark: "UK job postings are down 11% since the start of 2026 and now stand 32% below their pre-pandemic baseline." That's not a seasonal wobble. It's the clearest sign yet that hiring demand across the UK has kept shrinking through the first half of the year.
It lands hardest on exactly the roles you're chasing if you're early in your career. The report is specific: "graduate job postings are down around 7% from last year's levels, as of 10 July, standing at the lowest for this time of year since 2020." And the seasonal jobs that usually fill the gap while you look for something permanent aren't picking up the slack either: "As of 10 July, summer job postings are at their weakest level in four years."
That's two doors closing at once. Fewer graduate schemes opening, and fewer summer retail or hospitality shifts to tide you over while you look. The report calls this out directly, warning that weak summer hiring "risks delaying the accumulation of those experiences and skills at precisely the moment when those early career investments are most valuable."
You're not applying badly. You're applying into a smaller pool.
It's easy to read a quiet inbox as a verdict on you. It isn't. The Office for National Statistics puts UK youth unemployment (16 to 24) at 16.4% for March to May 2026, the highest it's been since 2014, with 743,000 young people out of work. Indeed's own report leans on the same backdrop, noting that "with youth unemployment already at a decade high, the data paints a concerning picture." Fewer postings and more people chasing each one is arithmetic, not a judgement on your CV.
There's a second shift buried in the same data that's worth knowing about even if it doesn't change what you do this week. AI mentions in UK job postings have hit "a record 9.4%", and the report finds that "workers who are actively repositioning toward AI-adjacent skills appear increasingly insulated from the broader softness in hiring demand." Employers are still hiring, just increasingly for a slightly different shape of role than the one you might have trained for.
The three gates, and why a shrinking pool tightens all of them
None of this changes what actually decides whether you get an interview. It just raises the stakes at each stage.
Gate one, the ATS. With fewer roles and more applicants per posting, software is doing more of the filtering before a person ever sees your CV. It only knows how closely your wording mirrors the job ad's, not how good you'd be at the job.
Gate two, the recruiter scan. Around seven seconds, focused on the top third of the page. When a graduate scheme that drew 60 applications last year draws 90 this year, recruiters have less patience per CV, not more.
Gate three, the hiring manager. They're picking a shortlist from a deeper pile than a year ago, and they favour CVs that read like the actual day-to-day of the role over the most generically polished one.
What to do this week
- Widen the search past graduate schemes alone. With graduate postings at a multi-year low, roles advertised as "junior" or "entry-level" outside formal schemes are worth just as much of your time.
- Name any AI-adjacent tool or skill you've actually used. You don't need to be an AI specialist. If you've used AI tools competently in coursework, a placement or a part-time job, say so in the language the ad uses.
- Check which gate is actually stopping you before you rewrite the whole CV. Most candidates guess wrong about where they're losing.
The free CV Health Check scores your CV against all three gates in about 30 seconds, no credit card needed, so you can fix the actual problem instead of guessing at it.
The pool is smaller this year. Your application doesn't have to be one more reason you're not getting through it.
Run a free Health Check. 30 seconds, no card, no sign-up.
Sources
- Indeed Hiring Lab, Indeed's 2026 Mid-Year UK Jobs & Hiring Trends Report: A Labour Market Under Pressure, and in Transition, 3 August 2026: UK job postings down 11% since the start of 2026 and 32% below their pre-pandemic baseline; graduate job postings down around 7% year on year as of 10 July, the lowest for the time of year since 2020; summer job postings at a four-year low; AI mentions in UK job postings at a record 9.4%.
- Office for National Statistics, Unemployment rate (aged 16 to 24, seasonally adjusted): timeseries MGWY: 16.4% for March to May 2026, the highest since 2014.
- Office for National Statistics, Unemployment levels aged 16 to 17: timeseries YBVH and aged 18 to 24: timeseries YBVN: 145,000 and 598,000 respectively for March to May 2026, 743,000 combined.